South Korea's COVID election

How will COVID-19 impact on national elections?  At the start of this crisis I wrote that elections this year, and next, would:

• favour incumbent governments if held near the start of the crisis - because of the initial 'pull-together' instinct in an emergency, already visible in most (but not all) countries.
• go against incumbents if, with the passage of time, they are perceived to have handled the crisis badly - this is worrying Trump, Bolsonaro and others, and explains Trump's efforts to place blame elsewhere.
• favour more economically 'left' parties rather than parties seen as economically neo-liberal - the latter will be less trusted to avoid placing place the burden of recovery onto the poorest and most vulnerable.
• produce some radical electoral surprises and some radical policies, mainly (but not only) in a 'left' direction.

The South Korean election yesterday seems to confirm these expectations.

It returned the incumbent centre-left Minjoo (Democratic Party), led by President Moon Jae-in, in a landslide.  It gave Minjoo an unprecedented majority in Parliament.  It also saw a record turnout by voters, despite strict physical distancing measures at the polling stations.  At the beginning of this year Minjoo was widely expected to lose the election. by a significant margin.

The South Korean government has been widely praised for its COVID-19 response both at home and internationally.  Preparation, widespread testing, and fast action appear to have been the key ingredients of their strategy.

President Moon has been quick to reshuffle the policy board of the Central Bank and announce an intention to boost household incomes, curb soaring property prices, and boost aggregate demand through stimulus measures.   The right-wing opposition is licking its wounds.

Let's see if my predictions come true in the elections to come, or whether my predictions are simply wish fulfilment desires.

Although nationally and locally-specific factors will be important, upcoming elections to watch include:

• Bihar, India - one of the largest and poorest states with a population over 100m.
• Poland - Presidential
• France - Senate
• Mexico - local
• United States
• Bolivia
• New Zealand