There will be unrest

"There will be social unrest. There will be violence. There will be socio-economic consequences: dramatic unemployment'.  That's the widely quoted view of Jacob Wallenberg, leading Swedish industrialist and head of the Wallenberg dynasty.  

Wallenberg was warning about the possible consequences flowing from the adoption of harsh and protracted anti-COVID lockdown measures.  It's Trump's worry too when he warns that 'the cure may be worse than the disease'.  It's a view that is not without foundation. It attracts support from two ends of the spectrum: the elite with much to lose if the world turns upside down, and those suffering the most from loss of livelihoods during the lockdown, under pressure to put food on the table and desperate for a return to 'normality'.  The left needs to find a clear vision that appeals to the latter, goes beyond the public health arguments, and also builds a movement for radical change and a better life.

In Australia the elites are already preparing for post-lockdown life.  They have in mind their perennial objectives being put into law - reduced trade union rights (more precarious work), tax cuts for big business, and the removal of environmental regulations (yes the bushfires have taught them nothing), all with the alleged goal of boosting economic growth.  The ruling elite appears to imagine paying off the debt currently being racked up by a combination of austerity and kicking the problem down the road for the younger generation to pay.  Whether they get away with this, is still up for grabs.

It's unclear which direction we can expect to unfold both in Australia and elsewhere.  But we should not underestimate our own agency, if organised, in deciding where we end up.  In previous major crises, social discontent and unrest has either gone in a fascist and totalitarian direction, or in a socialist/left-populist, solidaristic direction.  The stakes are high.  There will be revolutions although perhaps not in the nations of the global North.